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Blue Pearl Weather Prediction Center/BPWPC Scientific Journal: Atlantic Hurricane Season of 82590
BPWPC Scientific Journal Atlantic Cyclone Season of 82590 Draft Authors: Bluepearl6660 (talk) 17:23, July 22, 2016 (UTC) ABSTRACT: The 82590 hurricane season had 42 storms. This is a review of Subtropical Cyclone Tambry, Tropical Storm Pearl, Hurricane Merope (C3 Major), Winter Storm Brehm (AKA Laura), Windstorm Monique, Snowcane Blue, Hurricane Steffi (C3 Major), Tropical Storm Fantala, Tropical Depression 22A, Hurricane Emeraude (C5 Major), Hurricane Ruby (C5 Major), Hurricane Sapphire (C3 Major), Superstorm Faith, Tropical Depression Aelita (27), Tropical Storm Elysium, Hurricane Medli (C1 Minor), Hurricane Lana (C5 Major), Subtropical Cyclone Rose, Hurricane Skyler (C4 Major), Subtropical Storm Leia, Hurricane Seriffe (C5 Major), Megacane Tetra, Tropical Storm Anthea, Tropical Depression 37A, Hurricane Aryll (C5 Major), and Subtropical Storm Toriel. Operationally Named Cyclones Subtropical Cyclone Tambry (ST13AL) Subtropical Storm Tambry was a weak storm that formed close to Africa and went west, keeping its subtropical status until just before hitting France. There was minimal damage, and one fatality. The system was absorbed by an extratropical system almost 3 hours after its landfall. Update: Subtropical Storm Tambry had hurricane force winds, and will be changed to a Category 1 equivalent subtropical hurricane. Shocking! Reanalysis: Minimum pressure changed from 998 to 997, also it was extratropical when it hit France. Tropical Storm Pearl (TS15AL) Tropical Depression 15A was first detected by the GPM and MODIS satellites west of Florida tracking east at 25 knots on August 6th at 1600 EST. The depression made landfall in Florida on August 7th at 1100 EST with winds of 18 kts. TD 15A crossed Florida and entered the Gulf of Mexico. The storm became extratropical and strengthened, to a central pressure of 989 mb and winds of gale force. The remnants of 15A made landfall in Louisiana and dissipated over Ohio. UPDATE: The system's lowest pressure and winds were changed from 999 hPa and 20 mph to 991 hPa and 45 mph. The system has been upgraded to a tropical storm and retroactively given the name Pearl. Reanalysis: Minimum pressure changed from 991 to 989, and the cyclone actually became subtropical in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming extratropical over Tennesee. Hurricane Merope (H16AL) Hurricane Merope formed in the Atlantic (duh). The storm system formed in the Gulf of Mexico, south of New Orleans. It strengthened and traveled south. The storm turned west and hit Florida at max intensity. The system transitioned to extratropical and tracked up the East Coast, before dissipating. Merope was actually a Cat 3. Reanalysis: Nothing changed Winter Storm Brehm (EX17AL) Winter Storm Brehm, also known as Snowcane Laura or Snowcane 17A, was a snowcane first spotted by the Blue Pearl Weather Prediction Center's TRMM satellite. The BPWPC and BNWC issued weather warnings on the system as Winter Storm Brehm and Snowcane 17A, respectively. The storm was called Snowcane Laura by the FMC. The storm was a Category 3 snowcane, according to the BNWC Snow Storms Scale, with maximum snowfall of 6.66 inches reported. The system tracked from the Gulf of Mexico, over Florida, and up the East Coast. The snow was made possible by a dip in the jetstream. The storm was first predicted by the GFS model at 6 days away. Reanalysis: Minimum pressure changed from 955 to 954. BLUE PEARL WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER WINTER STORM BREHM ADVISORY 14 AUGUST 25 1200Z THE LOW CALLED BREHM IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA HEADING NORTH AT 45 KTS. THE LOW WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON LONG ISLAND. WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT IN LONG ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG BREHM'S TRACK. SNOWFALL IN THE LONG ISLAND AREA IS PREDICTED TO BE BETWEEN 6.5 AND 6.7 INCHES. THE STORM HAS ALREADY DEPOSITED SNOW BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES ALONG ITS TRAJECTORY. TRMM SATELLITE WIND READINGS ARE SHOWING WINDS OF 81 FOR BREHM. ERROR OF +-1 GIVE MAX WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 80. WINTER STORM BREHM WILL DISSIPATE OVER CANADA. OH: CENT PRES 955 MAX WIND 90 12H: CENT PRES 959 MAX WIND 89 24H: CENT PRES 971 MAX WIND 59 36H: CENT PRES 984 MAX WIND 43 48H: CENT PRES 998 MAX WIND 25 72H: DISSIPATED OVER CANADA FORECASTERS ALYSSA ND MORGAN BPWPC (BLUE PEARL WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER) WITH SAPPHIRE WEATHER MODEL ALPHA VERSION AUG 25 1200Z Windstorm Monique (EX18AL) Windstorm Monique formed over Canada and rapidly intensified, absorbing the remnants of Winter Storm Brehm. Windstorm Monique tracked across the Atlantic and hit France at full strength. It broke the top part of the Eiffel Tower off! The storm had the lowest central pressure of any extratropical storm in its area. Reanalysis: Windspeed estimates of 255 mph were way off. Actual windspeed was around 175 mph, as estimated by satellite imagery analysis. Initial wind speed estimates were based on damage analysis, but after investigation, it seems that the damage to the Eiffel Tower (one of the main damage points for wind estimates) was actually caused by a tornado which formed inside of the rainbands of Monique. Snowcane Blue (EX19AL) Snowcane Blue formed over the Gulf of Mexico. It tracked over Florida and headed up the east coast, intensifying. The storm made landfall on Long Island, and then in Massachussets. The storm explosively weakened and dissipated over Maine. Reanalysis: Nothing changed. Hurricane Steffi (H20AL) Hurricane Steffi stayed at sea for its lifetime. It was the first storm to be studied by the BPWPC's At Sea Radar/Wind Mesonet system, on account of it passing directly over the 10 test buoys, destroying 3. The storm hit the UK as an extratropical storm, called Windstorm Vivian. Analysis is showing that Windstorm Vivian was a subtropical storm with hurricane-force winds, similar to Tambry. Hurricane Steffi was actually a Category 3 hurricane, along with Merope. Reanalysis: Nothing changed. Tropical Storm Fantala (H21AL) Tropical Storm Fantala formed over the Gulf of Mexico. It tracked northwest, making landfall on Florida as a tropical depression. The storm then tracked up the East Coast,intensifying to a tropical storm. It made landfall on Long Island at maximum intensity. The cyclone dissipated over Canada. Reanalysis: Minimum pressure changed from 999 to 998 Tropical Depression 22 Depression 22 formed west of Belize, and made landfall 1 day after forming. The storm was stationary over Belize for 4 days, causing torrential rain, killing 65. The storm was poorly forecast. However, TD 22 could have been worse. Reanalysis: Nothing changed. Major Hurricane Emeraude (MH23AL) Major Hurricane Emeraude was a Cape Verde hurricane that hit Long Island as a Category 3 hurricane. Forecasts were pretty accurate for Emeraude, unlike for TD 22. Post-analysis shows that Hurricane Emeraude was actually an extratropical cyclone at landfall. Reanalysis: Nothing changed Hurricane Ruby (H24AL) Hurricane Ruby formed over Cape Verde, and intensified until it absorbed Hurricane Sapphire. Then,it intensified rapidly to a Category 5 hurricane and hit Miami as a Category 5 hurricane, causing massive damage. It was tracked by BPWPC and BNWC HRCN Ruby/Sapphire Reanalysis: After close study of dropsonde wind data, satellite imagery, aircraft radar data, and scatterometer wind observations, it was found that the cyclonic circulation of Ruby absorbed that of Sapphire, not the other way around as noted in official advisories. Major Hurricane Sapphire (MH25AL) Hurricane Sapphire formed from a tropical disturbance over Cape Verde. It was absorbed by MH Ruby HRCN Ruby/Sapphire Reanalysis: After close study of dropsonde wind data, satellite imagery, aircraft radar data, and scatterometer wind observations, it was found that the cyclonic circulation of Ruby absorbed that of Sapphire, not the other way around as noted in official advisories. Superstorm Faith (SP26AL) Superstorm Faith formed when a tropical wave passed over a pocket of 60-degrees-Celsius water. The system intensified rapidly, causing winds over the speed of sound. Sonic booms were a hindrance to intensification, but the cyclone reached a central pressure of 42.98 hPa. The cyclone weakened and hit the Lesser Antilles as a Category 7 hurricane. The storm was tracked by all agencies. Reanalysis: Nothing changed Tropical Depression 27/Tropical Storm Aelita (TS27AL) This system was tracked as a tropical storm, but was found to actually have been a tropical depression. The storm was kept weak by high upper-level winds coming off SP26AL (Faith) as it reached maximum intensity. TD Aelita made landfall in Belize. Reanalysis: Minimum pressure changed from 999.4 to 998.4. Tropical Storm Elysium (TS28AL) After TD 27's dissipation, a pool of moisture over the Yucatan Peninsula became Tropical Depression 28 over land. The storm moved over the Gulf of Mexico and intensified into TS Elysium. The storm hit Louisiana and dissipated over land. Hurricane Medli (H29AL) Medli was a storm that stayed at sea for it's entire life. On October 12th, a weak tropical low merged with a TD and created Medli, a tropical storm that was pretty strong. At that point (October 14th), it was at 70 mph winds. After going above-average ocean, it developed into a hurricane on October 18th. It then slowly (in 4 days) dissipated. Reanalysis: nothing changed. Major Hurricane Lana MH Lana formed from a disturbance left by Faith as it dissipated. Lana intensified to a Category 5 hurricane north of the Azores, breaking Hurricane Injima's record. The storm went on to hit Spain and France as a Category 3 hurricane. Reanalysis: Nothing changed Subtropical Cyclone Rose Cyclone Rose formed from an extratropical cyclone headed up the East Coast. The cyclone turned left and hit New Jersey at maximum intensity. Reanalysis: Nothing changed. Hurricane Skyler Hurricane Skyler formed from a tropical wave east of Cape Verde. The cyclone reached peak intensity south of Cuba. It tracked into the Gulf of Mexico, where it interacted and merged with an intense extratropical cyclone. Reanalysis: Nothing changed. Subtropical Storm Leia The extratropical storm that absorbed Skyler tracked over Florida on November 20, and went northwest up the East Coast. The cyclone became subtropical west of the Delmarva Peninsula. The storm continued and hit Nova Scotia and Newfoundland at maximum intensity on November 24, losing tropical characteristics next day. The cyclone then went on to make landfall in France as an extratropical storm. The cyclone was absorbed by another windstorm at 12:00 on November 30. Reanalysis: Nothing changed. Major Hurricane Seriffe Hurricane Seriffe formed from a pair of invests merging into a tropical depression. The cyclone intensified into Tropical Storm Seriffe on November 21. The cyclone was a Category 5 by the 24th. The cyclone hit Belize at maximum intensity, and crossed into the Pacific basin as a Category 1 hurricane on the 26th. It was named Hurricane Calico, and it did not affect land in the Pacific. Reanalysis: Minimum pressure changed to 923 from 921 Megacane Tetra Megacane Tetra formed from Tropical Depression 35A. The cyclone passed over water warmed up to 75 degrees Celsius by a massive volcanic eruption on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The cyclone rapidly intensified into a massive megacane. The cyclone's wind speeds were multiple times over the speed of sound, causing sonic boom weakening, similar to in Faith. The cyclone intensified even more than Faith, before sound-wave weakening started to affect the hurricane. The storm weakened to a Category 10 on December 10. Luckily, when megacanes are at full intensity, their winds flatten the ocean under them. However, as a Cat-10, it caused 80-foot waves that swamped the desolate Bermuda, already destroyed by Landon. 30-foot swells covered the entire Atlantic Ocean. The cyclone reintensified to a hypercane over the Caribbean Sea, and hit Belize at maximum intensity as a hypercane that caused tsunami-like damage all over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Untold devastation happened, because literally noone knows. All of coastal Belize was flooded, and all predictions say at least 3 months will pass until it is dry again. Tetra crossed into the Pacific as a Category 4 hurricane on the 25th, where it continued on to do pretty much nothing in the Pacific. Post- Storm Analysis: Tetra was found to have been the strongest storm of the season in terms of wind speeds, Kylie was the strongest in terms of pressure. Reanalysis: After Belize dried, search teams from BPWPC found observation records that indicated winds of around 17515 mph, changed from a satellite-estimated 17280; and a pressure of 501 mb was recorded within the middle rings of the cyclone, changing minimum pressure from 20 to 25. Tropical Storm Anthea TS Anthea's precursor, TD 36A, was unable to intensify to a tropical storm until December 11, because of upper-level winds caused by Tetra. TS Anthea hit Bermuda at full intensity, leading many to speculate what Bermuda did to nature to get it so mad. Reanalysis: Minimum central pressure changed from 1001 to 1000. Tropical Depression 37A Also known as the "Really? cyclone", this storm formed west of Cape Hatteras and sped over the former location of Bermuda before dissipating. Reanalysis: Nothing changed Major Hurricane Aryll Major Hurricane Aryll formed out of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) over the Gulf of Mexico. Slowly moving,it intensified to a Category 5 on December 31, becoming the latest Category 5 hurricane ever. It started to weaken on January 3, and started to track south. It hit Cuba as a tropical storm, and became a remnant low. This low dissipated on January 12. Reanalysis: Aryll hit Cuba as a weak Cat 1, instead of a strong TS, as previously thought. Subtropical Storm Toriel Tropical Storm Toriel formed from a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone quickly reached maximum intensity, and then weakened to a remnant low. The storm hit Florida with winds of around 20 knots, and dissipated east of Delaware. Reanalysis: Toriel was actually a subtropical storm. Non-Developing Invests and Untracked Cyclones NDI 01 This invest tracked off Africa and caused heavy rain and gusts up to TD strength over Cape Verde. BPWPC ATLANTIC TROPICAL FORMATION ALERT TAFC TFAATL AN INVEST IS LOCATED OVER CAPE VERDE WITH WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS GUSTING TO 37. THIS INVEST IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTS ARE A THREAT TO CAPE VERDE. 24H CHANCE: 70%. 5-DAY CHANCE: 90%. FORECASTER CLEMENTINE BPWPC MIAMI-TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST CENTER NDI 02 This system was a weak cyclonic disturbance with high convective activity which moved off Africa and caused low winds and heavy rain in Cape Verde before it dissipated over sea. Tropical Storm Unnamed This storm was unidentified during the season. It caused minimal damage. NDI 03 A disturbance formed along the monsoon trough and hit South America. The remnant circulation was tracked across northern South America into the Pacific, where it got absorbed into a deeper cyclonic circulation NDI 04 This cyclonic low formed off Cape Hatteras and tracked north and hit Nova Scotia at maximum intensity. The cyclone was not organized enough to be classified a subtropical cyclone 2nd Reanalysis-Found Disturbances Category:Meteorological centers Category:Weather Center